The price bottom still has some support, and LME zinc maintains a fluctuating trend. [SMM Morning Meeting Minutes]

Futures: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $2,955/mt. At the beginning of the session, prices fluctuated downward, probing a low of $2,926.5/mt, before the price center gradually moved higher, touching a high of $2,976/mt. Towards the end of the session, LME zinc pulled back again, finally closing down at $2,940.5/mt, a decrease of $13/mt or 0.44%. Open interest decreased to 119,000 lots, while open interest increased by 4,285 lots to 224,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2511 contract opened at 22,065 yuan/mt. At the start, SHFE zinc quickly touched a high of 22,085 yuan/mt, then bears increased their positions, causing prices to fall rapidly and probe a low of 21,925 yuan/mt. Subsequently, SHFE zinc attempted to rise above the daily average line but ultimately encountered resistance and pulled back. Towards the end of the session, the price center fluctuated rangebound around 21,950 yuan/mt, finally closing down at 21,945 yuan/mt, a decrease of 70 yuan/mt or 0.32%. Trading volume decreased to 82,699 lots, while open interest increased by 97 lots to 90,009 lots.

Macro: US Fed Governor Milan called for accelerating the pace of interest rate cuts; Trump confirmed he authorized the CIA to conduct covert operations in Venezuela; Trump stated he could order Israel to resume operations with a single command; Trump: India pledged to stop purchasing Russian oil but needs a process; China's CPI in September decreased 0.3% YoY and increased 0.1% MoM; The aggregate financing to the real economy (AFRE) in the first three quarters was 442 billion yuan more than the same period last year.

Spot:

Shanghai: The purchasing sentiment for refined zinc in the Shanghai area was 2.27, while the selling sentiment was 2.5. Futures fell significantly compared to the previous day. Traders showed a strong reluctance to budge on prices, and spot quotations continued to move higher. However, some downstream users placed priced orders after the price drop last night and continued to anticipate a decline today, placing orders at lower prices. Overall transaction volume did not show significant improvement.

Guangdong: The purchasing sentiment for refined zinc in the Guangdong area was 1.99, while the selling sentiment was 2.31. Although the zinc price center declined yesterday, downstream users primarily engaged in just-in-time procurement. Spot transactions were relatively average. To facilitate sales, traders slightly lowered spot premiums/discounts, which declined yesterday.

Tianjin: The purchasing sentiment for refined zinc in the Tianjin area was 2.37, while the selling sentiment was 2.38. Zinc prices fell significantly yesterday, following a drop the previous night. Downstream users placed many priced orders the night before, but adopted a wait-and-see attitude yesterday, still mainly placing priced orders, with limited actual cargo pick-up. Smelters became reluctant to sell due to the price drop, coupled with shortages of some brands. Traders' quotations edged higher. Overall market transactions improved compared to the previous day.

Ningbo: Zinc futures prices declined MoM. However, zinc ingots previously ordered by some large plants were still arriving, reducing their spot purchase demand. Combined with average order performance, enterprise transactions remained based on just-in-time needs yesterday. Market spot quotations were basically stable compared to the previous day's levels.

Inventory: On October 15, LME zinc inventory decreased by 250 mt to 38,350 mt, a drop of 0.65%. According to SMM communication, as of this Monday (October 13), the total zinc ingot inventory across seven SMM-tracked locations was 163,100 mt, an increase of 21,700 mt from September 29 and an increase of 12,900 mt from October 9, indicating rising domestic inventory.

Zinc Price Forecast: Overnight, LME zinc recorded a bearish candlestick, with the 10-day and 60-day daily averages providing support below. US Fed officials called for accelerating the pace of interest rate cuts, while regional geopolitical uncertainties persist. Combined with support from low overseas inventory, LME zinc has relatively strong short-term bottom support. Overnight, SHFE zinc recorded a bearish candlestick, with the middle Bollinger Band exerting pressure above and the lower Bollinger Band providing support below. Currently, zinc end-use consumption lacks bright spots, and recent market conditions show no signs of large-scale exports. The supply remains strong while demand is weak; however, LME continues to provide some support to SHFE zinc. It is expected that SHFE zinc will remain range-bound in the short term.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model. These data are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.